UK: With up to 70 000 senior technical and management roles expected to be lost to retirement and workforce attrition by 2030, rail leaders must arrest the talent drain before it becomes too late, says Phil Walters, Track & Train Business Director at Fuel Learning.
We are entering a pivotal period for the UK rail industry. Passenger numbers are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels and major projects such as East West Rail, the Transpennine Route Upgrade and HS2 are all set to gather pace over the coming years.
But while the future of the rail industry should be a source of excitement, for many it is a cause for concern. Recent data from the National Skills Academy for Rail revealed that up to 70 000 senior technical and management roles are expected to be lost to retirement and workforce attrition by 2030. While the number of workers under the age of 25 has increased slightly year-on-year, it still falls short of the number expected to retire in the next five years.
Worryingly, these figures will not be news to many. After all, this is not a new story. It is the culmination of years, if not decades, of unsuccessful approaches to learning and development. The challenge facing rail leaders now is to identify new approaches that can arrest the talent drain before it becomes too late.
Finding a funding balance
When it comes to talent development and retention within the rail industry, the Growth & Skills Levy (which evolved from the former Apprenticeship Levy in April 2025) has long been one of the primary sources of funding. While I would say there is a general rather than uniform awareness of Levy funding, it can still play a crucial role in the training and development of middle management staff who, in five years’ time, will be ready to step into the shoes of colleagues poised to retire. The problem is that this is not happening.
When I speak to passenger and freight operators about how they use their Levy funding, one of the most common responses is driver training. I’m not disputing the importance of this, especially given Level 5 apprenticeships are often the only formal way of delivering driver training. However, it does not address the long-term talent drain threatening the industry. After all, there are around 27 000 train drivers in the UK, yet they constitute just over a quarter of full-time equivalent employees across train operators and Network Rail.
Ultimately, the 70 000 people expected to leave the industry over the next five years are not all drivers — they include thousands of experienced operations, logistics and management professionals. Ringfencing a portion of Levy funding for Level 3 and Level 5 non-driver training should be a key consideration for both finance and learning/development teams in the new financial year.
Under-delivery
A second point I often hear is that many existing Level 3 and Level 5 apprenticeship programmes are not aligned to the unique pressures of the rail industry. Let me put this into context.
Many providers of Level 3 and Level 5 management apprenticeships are sector-agnostic, with the rationale being that attendees can apply the theory to their own workplaces. The primary challenge for rail stakeholders is not necessarily the theory, but the delivery. For example, imagine the logistical challenge of attempting to co-ordinate up to 30 different station managers to attend a one-day course each month. These are public-facing, high pressure roles which require significant flexibility; something that many traditional courses simply cannot offer.
As a result, many talented individuals are left to rely on training that is either provided in-house or by a third party, which is often not regulated or recognised as a professional qualification. This can lead to high performers getting promoted into managerial roles without having received the right training to enable them to cope with the additional pressure and responsibilities. It is these ‘accidental managers’ who are most at risk of feeling that they are not up to the job, further increasing the volume of talent leaving the industry.
Future-proof pathways
However, all is not lost. The past few years have witnessed more rail-specific Level 3 and Level 5 courses coming to market. These offer a more flexible approach, with a focus on applied learning methodologies, smaller groups and hybrid learning across both in-person and virtual sessions, as well as course material tailored to the bespoke challenges of the rail industry.
Crucially, the government removed Level 7 programmes from qualifying for Growth & Skills Levy funding in late 2025. This could potentially free-up more budget for passenger and freight operators to invest in Level 3 and 5 training. After all, a promising Customer Service Operative enrolling on a Level 3 apprenticeship in 2026 could feasibly complete their Level 5 training in 2030 and assume a senior operational role at the expected peak of the rail talent exodus.
- Phil Walters is Track & Train Business Director at Fuel Learning. Fuel Learning has helped develop more than 300 senior leaders across the rail industry over the past 15 years. The company is a preferred supplier for Network Rail and has worked with more than 10 different passenger and freight operating companies on their talent development and retention strategies.