EUROPE: The 2030 target date for completing the core Trans-European Transport Network is now clearly out of reach, the European Court of Auditors says in a report into eight megaprojects including six rail schemes.
The report published on January 19 looks at Rail Baltica, the Lyon – Torino line, the Brenner Base Tunnel, the Basque Y, the Fehmarn Belt fixed link and the E59 rail link to ports in Poland, as well as the Seine-Scheldt waterway and the A1 motorway in Romania.
It updates a report from 2020, when the 2030 target date first set in 2013 was deemed ‘unlikely to be met’. Since then the complex projects have been hit by rising energy and material costs, new regulatory requirements and unexpected technical issues such as geological constraints, as well as unforeseen crises including the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The auditors say that while there have been improvements in governance frameworks since 2020, the underlying problems remain and the outlook is now worse than five years ago.
Annemie Turtelboom, the ECA member who led the production of the report, said ‘the future of Europe’s transport megaprojects still rests on shaky foundations. Delays and cost increases weaken not just the planning schedules, but the credibility of the EU’s ability to deliver. The consequences are not abstract. If these key links are not completed on time, Europe’s mobility, economy and cohesion will all suffer. In a world marked by geopolitical tensions and growing competition, Europe must ensure that its transport backbone is reliable, modern and resilient.’
Cost increases and delays
| Project | Original timeline | 2020 prediction | 2025 prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basque Y railway | 2010 | 2023 | 2030+ (2035 seen as more realistic) |
| Lyon – Torino rail link | 2015 | 2020 | 2033 |
| Brenner Base Tunnel | 2016 | 2028 | 2032 |
| Fehmarn Belt fixed link | 2018 | 2028 | 2029 (further delayed since the report) |
| Rail Baltica | 2026 | 2030 | 2030 (Phase 1; Phase 2 unknown) |
In 2020 the EU auditors reported that the eight examined megaprojects had experienced an overall real cost increase (that is, net of inflation) of 47%, compared to the original estimates. The difference is now almost twice as high at +82%. This increase has been mainly driven by two of the projects; costs increased to a lesser extent at two projects and decreased for four.
The cost of Rail Baltica has increased by 160% in the last six years to almost four times higher than initial estimates, with around half of the increase attributed to the lack of maturity and detail at the time of the previous estimates, and the rest to changes in the scope and design. The cost of the Lyon – Torino rail link is up 23% in the last six years, to more than double the original projection.
The auditors’ 2020 report found projects were delayed by an average of 11 years compared to original plans. The situation has further deteriorated, and for the five megaprojects for which information is available, the average delay has now extended to 17 years.
Revised regulation
The auditors note that the European Commission has only once used the main legal tool at its disposal to receive explanations for delays (Article 56 of the 2013 TEN-T regulation), and not on any of the eight megaprojects examined.
While the recent revision of the TEN-T Regulation will increase the role and power of the European Commission in overseeing completion of the network, the auditors say this will mostly affect future projects and the impact will ultimately depend on whether legal provisions are actually implemented and complied with by EU countries.
‘Europe cannot afford more decade-long delays for critical transport links essential for mobility, for the single market, for competitiveness and for European resilience’, said Turtelboom. ’We have introduced a set of improved rules, now we must deliver on them with urgency and determination.’
